Are We Really at Full Employment?

The idiomatic phrase that enters in so often in economic discussions is that we are at full employment because the unemployment rate is low. While it’s true that we are at an unemployment rate that is the lowest that we’ve been in a very long time, I don’t think this statistic tells the whole story. [Read More…]

Recession Concerns Revisited: Sky Still Not Falling

In the fall, we published a white paper exploring recession concerns: Gauging U.S. Recession Risk. At that time, we did not see any indications of a recession. Fast-forward to today, and the United States is now in the second longest economic expansion since the mid-1800s (107 months, including May). Previously, the longest expansion was from [Read More…]

New Tax Cuts: Immediate Impact to Credit Expected?

As economists, we study the historical impacts of natural disasters, changes in government policy or actions by central banks so that we can make an educated ‘guess’ as to how the economy might respond to similar situations in the future. The new change in federal tax law is one such example. As part of our [Read More…]

Early Payment Performance: Changing standards?

Assessing early payment performance on recent vintages for key tradelines provides a good barometer for lending conditions in the current economic climate. Segmenting and analyzing tradelines by origination quarter (vintage) helps lenders better understand portfolio performance in historical context. Examining the portfolio in this manner helps identify trends and uncover potential reasons for changes in [Read More…]

Household debt is creeping up. Cause for alarm? Not yet.

The latest U.S. Economic and Credit Trends Outlook webinar from Equifax featured guest speaker Cristian deRitis, Senior Director at Moody’s Analytics. In addition to the customary review of recent economic and consumer credit trends delivered by Equifax Chief Economist, Amy Crews Cutts, Cris presented a consumer credit forecast for 2018. Today’s post highlights a portion [Read More…]

New White Paper Available from Equifax – Gauging U.S. Recession Risk

Equifax has published a new white paper – Gauging U.S. Recession Risk. Written by Amy Crews Cutts, senior vice president and chief economist at Equifax and Gunnar Blix, deputy chief economist, this white paper walks through some of the concerns surrounding the timing of recessions. Key topics covered include: Up and Down Cycles Consumers Doing [Read More…]

Quarterly U.S. Economic and Credit Trends from Equifax – Credit Card Activity Remains Strong and Steady

As part of our new quarterly series, U.S. Economic and Credit Trends Outlook, Equifax is sharing fresh insights and information about current economic conditions. We hope this regular update can help you optimize performance, growth and profitability across all areas of your business by giving you a fresh, current snapshot of the economy and key [Read More…]

U.S. Economy is Looking Up, as Improvement Continues Through 2017

Having a basic understanding of current economic conditions can help you make smarter, more strategic decisions about your business. You can benchmark your performance against national markets and trends. You can better forecast your book of business. You can even boost your business agility by monitoring shifts in your industry, or the broader economy. For [Read More…]

Latest Credit Trends – Equifax Reports New Credit at Five Year High

Our latest National Consumer Credit Trends Report is out, and new credit generated during January – February of this year is up more than 33% over recession lows.  If you’re involved in Auto Lending, Home-Equity Lending, and Student Lending, you are probably pretty busy these days. Year-to-date new credit balance changes compared to the same [Read More…]

December 2012 Credit Trends – Credit Levels Increasing

Equifax has released the latest National Credit Trends Summary for December, 2012. The significant news is consumer credit levels are inceasing for non-mortgage lending, while delinquency rates for non-mortgage loans has returned to pre-recession levels. Follow the link above to read more details and see my other comments including what’s happening with auto lending, retail [Read More…]