Gauging U.S. Recession Risk: New White Paper Available from Equifax
A question frequently asked is when the U.S. might enter into a recession. To help separate fact from fiction, Amy Crews Cutts, senior vice president and chief economist at Equifax and Gunnar Blix, deputy chief economist, walk us through some of the concerns surrounding the timing of recessions in a new white paper.
Key topics covered include:
- Up and Down Cycles
- Consumers Doing Their Part
- Do Expansions Die of “Old Age?”
- Leading Indicators of Recession Risk
- What Equifax Credit Data Indicates About Recession Risk
The focus of this study is recession risk from normal ebbs and flows of consumption and investment, and what we might learn from recent trends in credit markets. Policy risk, whether domestic or foreign, is impossible to gauge. Domestic fiscal stimulus, for example from comprehensive infrastructure spending, would be a boost to growth, but it isn’t free. Depending on how the money is raised to pay for it, such spending could create greater recession risk on net rather than less. Foreign events could also create economic stress at home and are nearly always unexpected.
Additional information on originations and credit trends can be found in our Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends report in the Investor Relations section of our website. You might also enjoy listening to a replay of one of our quarterly U.S. Economic and Credit Trends Outlook webinars. More detailed monthly reports are also available to Equifax Credit Trends and Moody’s Analytics Credit Forecast 5.0 subscribers. If you are interested in these reports please email your Equifax sales representative or contact us today.
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